A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
